Trade-off informed adaptive and robust real options water resources planning

Planning water resource systems is challenged primarily by two realities. First, uncertainty inherent in the predictions of future supplies and demands due for example to hydrological variability climate change. To build societal resilience planners should seek enhance adaptability robustness system interventions. Second, developments typically involve competing interests which implies considering trade-offs synergies implied highest performing combinations development options useful. This work describes a real based planning framework that generates adaptive robust design alternatives able consider trade-off different goals. The can address types uncertainties suggests designs across multiple evaluation criteria, such as financial costs supply service performance metrics. Using global city’s demonstration approach, we explore between long-term management plan’s infrastructure services (service resilience, reliability, vulnerability) its under demand uncertainty. set solutions consist investment plans are changing conditions. Results show lower net present value (NPV) needed investments up 18%, while maintaining similar other objectives. option delaying much possible approaches 14% total NPV.